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Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is an integral part of global warming mitigation
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is an integral part of global warming mitigation Carbon dioxide removal is essential to achieving the climate targets set by scientific consensus1 (IPCC, 2021), given the difficulties of effectively decarbonizing global industry. The discrepancy between emission reduction targets and actual progress under our current policies reinforces the need for urgent action in this regard. While the Paris Agreement, which came into force on November 4, 2016, galvanized the global commitment to limit warming to +1.5°C, to achieve this, CDRs need to neutralize residual emissions that are difficult to reduce, particularly in so-called "hard-to-abate" sectors such as cement or steel. All IPCC scenarios compatible with a warming of +1.5°C or +2°C include CDRs to achieve the Net Zero objective that has emerged since COP26. For scenarios in line with +1.5°C and +2°C trajectories, CDRs should enable the elimination of between 4.5 and 9 gigatons of CO₂ per year by 2050.
CDR methods have a unique combination of advantages, co-benefits and limitations, which need to be balanced in a diversified portfolio.
There is a wide range of CDR methods that can be classified into three categories: nature-based removal (e.g. afforestation), enhanced natural processes (e.g. accelerated terrestrial weathering or biochar carbon removal) and technology-based removal (e.g. BECCS2 or DACCS3 ). Each method varies in terms of technological intensity, permanence, potential for development at scale, traceability and cost. For example, while most nature-based solutions can be implemented immediately for significant economic and environmental results in the medium term, technology-based solutions offer greater sustainability, respect the like-for-like principle for fossil emissions, are currently more expensive and less technologically mature.
CDRs could become a global industry worth close to a trillion euros
The global economic potential of CDR could reach 470-935 billion euros4 per year by 2050 in the +2.0°C and +1.5°C trajectories respectively, on a par with the current global cloud computing industry. This potential is based on significant cost reductions for all CDR methods, driven by technological advances and economies of scale. For example, the costs of direct air carbon capture and storage, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) and biochar carbon removal could show reductions of between 35 and 85% compared with 2023 levels, in line with reductions observed for other transition technologies such as photovoltaics. Conversely, nature-based methods could experience cost increases due to higher biomass prices, land competition and stricter measurement and reporting requirements.
Europe, where the volume of CO2 potentially eliminated by CDRs should reach 750Mt in 2050, and France (185MtCO2 in 2050), can be market leaders.
Several members of the EU-27 are well positioned to dominate the global CDR market, notably France due to the quality of its research, its capacity for innovation, its industrial and financial sector and the resources available for natural (forestry and agricultural sectors) and technological (biomass, green electricity) solutions. The Net Zero commitment to 2050 should stimulate demand for French CDR, which can go beyond simply eliminating residual emissions (estimated at around 60-80MtCO₂ in France by
2050) and aim for a market worth 50 billion euros a year by 2050, creating up to 130,000 jobs (respectively 220 billion euros in Europe for 180,000 jobs).
France has major strategic advantages for accelerating the development of the CDR sector and establishing itself as a key player in the global market.
Its strong commitment to decarbonization is matched by a growing mobilization of the private sector, where more than 60% of CAC 40 companies have targets validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). France's wealth of natural and territorial resources, such as its 17 million hectares of forests, its vast agricultural areas, its low-carbon electricity mix and its second largest maritime area in the world, offer unique potential for natural, hybrid and technological carbon elimination solutions. In addition, France boasts a robust and dynamic ecosystem of players, combining major corporations, innovative start-ups and leading academic institutions. These assets, reinforced by recognized infrastructure and expertise, place France in an ideal position to catalyze the development of CDRs and meet global climate challenges.
France can structure the deployment of its CDR sectors around three complementary, sequenced approaches, building on its specific strengths
The immediate priority is to massively expand nature-based solutions, such as improving forest and agricultural soil management, which today represent the main French lever thanks to their maturity and short-term potential. At the same time, a technological turnaround is essential to develop innovative complementary solutions such as biochar, DACCS and BECCS. Finally, France needs to explore its unique ocean-related opportunities, with still emerging approaches such as blue carbon management or improving water alkalinity, drawing on its vast maritime domain and cutting-edge research centers.
Decisive action is needed now for all players in the ecosystem
We are not yet on track to realize the full potential of RDCs. Although there are clear signs that interest in CDRs is growing, much more needs to be done to fully exploit their benefits. Realizing their full potential requires a concerted effort on the part of decision-makers, industry, buyers and investors. A structured action plan highlights the need for public authorities to define a national strategy, support innovation and offer financial incentives, while producers must invest in research and strengthen monitoring systems. Buyers are called upon to stabilize diversified, long-term supplies, and investors to encourage innovative financial mechanisms, to accelerate the deployment of CDR on a large scale.
