From the Paris Agreement in 2015, The European Union (EU) is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. To structure this ambition, it has put in place an evolving legislative framework, which has been strengthened on several occasions. In February 2024, the European Commission recommended to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90 % by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. This initiative is in line with previous targets to 2030 and the achievement of climate neutrality by 2050.
Setting a target for 2040 makes clear the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) before that decade. By clearly separating emission reduction and removal efforts, this proposal highlights the need for a Europe-wide CDR strategy as early as the 2030s. Structuring this trajectory now is essential to ensure that CDR technologies and solutions can be deployed on the scale required to meet the new climate goals.
EU climate targets
The European Union is aiming for an ambitious ecological transition, with a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, according to the European Commission. European Climate Act 2021. This legislation establishes a binding framework and gradually plans emission reductions.
The ultimate goal for 2050 is to achieve climate neutrality, balancing remaining emissions with negative emissions. To achieve this, the EU must drastically reduce its emissions and develop Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) solutions to deal with residual emissions from hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as heavy industry and aviation (see our article on the role of CDR in climate scenarios).
To close the gap between 2030 and 2050 and avoid a slowdown in efforts, the European Commission has proposed an interim net reduction target of 90 % by 2040. This sets a residual emissions floor at 850 MtCO₂e and a carbon removal cap at 400 MtCO₂e. The Commission insists on early deployment of CDR, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and Carbon Utilization (CCU) technologies. These solutions include so-called "industrial" approaches such as bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture with CCS (DACCS), as well as so-called "natural" solutions such as reforestation and soil regeneration. The breakdown of the various methods has not yet been specified, but some scenarios forecast a target of 75Mt of "technological" CDR.
These targets are not yet legally binding, and must be incorporated into European law via a legislative revision scheduled for 2025, involving negotiations between member states and a vote in the European Parliament.
Why set intermediate targets?
An intermediate target of 2040 is crucial to avoid postponing decarbonization efforts until the last decade before 2050. CCS technologies take decades to develop. Without a gradual ramp-up, the EU risks an overload after 2040, leading to economic pressures, high costs and a potential failure to meet climate commitments.
A major risk of a post-2040 catch-up approach is climate overshoot. A recent study in Nature (2024) warns of the irreversible impacts of temporarily exceeding temperature thresholds, even if this is subsequently offset by emissions reductions and the CDR. This could lead to irreversible sea-level rise, massive biodiversity loss and irreparable ecological disruption, even if carbon neutrality is achieved.
The study also highlights uncertainties in the climate response to temporary exceedances. Feedback mechanisms, such as melting permafrost releasing methane, could amplify warming in an uncontrolled way. Relying on massive CDR technologies after 2040 to compensate for excess emissions in the 2030s could be risky and inefficient.
The large-scale deployment of CDR after 2040 poses major technical, economic and environmental challenges. CDR requires investments in infrastructure and energy, which are difficult to structure if their implementation is delayed. Delayed deployment could lead to economic imbalances, with investment and operating costs too high to be absorbed in a decade.
The 2040 targets are therefore crucial for limiting the risk of overshoot and ensuring the gradual development of CDR technologies. They allow early action on emissions reduction, immediately reducing global warming, while providing the time needed to develop sustainable CDR solutions. This balanced approach ensures that the EU does not rely solely on future technologies, but anticipates the transition to a low-carbon economy today.
Towards a European carbon management strategy
The 2040 targets are part of a broader approach to carbon management, including synergies with CCS technologies. These technologies are crucial to reducing residual emissions, but it is important to differentiate Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) from CCS and CCU. The EU aims to frame these approaches within a coherent industrial strategy, avoiding confusion between temporary and permanent storage.
Industrial Carbon Management Strategy (ICMS) of the EU supports this reform of the 2040 targets by structuring the development of CO₂ transport and storage networks and facilitating synergies between CCS and CDR. ICMS identifies several regulatory shortcomings currently holding back the deployment of carbon removal technologies, including the lack of clear financial incentives, the lack of recognition of CDR in current legislation, and the high cost of industrial CDR methods.
The strategy defines three key stages in the development of industrial carbon management in Europe:
- By 2030 : establish a CO₂ storage capacity of at least 50 million tonnes per year, accompanied by a diversified transport network integrating pipelines, sea, rail and road transport.
- By 2040 : the main regional carbon value chains should achieve sufficient economic viability to support the EU's climate objectives. Captured CO₂ would then become a marketable resource, both for storage and industrial applications, with up to a third of captured CO₂ used within the European single market.
- After 2040 : industrial carbon management should be fully integrated into the European economic system. At this stage, carbon of biogenic or atmospheric origin would become the main resource for industrial production and synthetic fuels, gradually reducing dependence on fossil sources.
The Commission is considering specific measures to support Carbon Dioxide Elimination (CDE), including appropriate regulatory frameworks and financing mechanisms. One major option is the integration of the CDR into the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), creating economic incentives for its deployment. The Commission also plans to step up investment in research and development of new CDR technologies via Horizon Europe and the European Innovation Fund, aimed at accelerating the technological maturation and economic viability of CDR solutions.
At present, Horizon Europe mainly funds CCS technologies and CDR using CCS. It is crucial to extend this support to all forms of CDR, including those without direct synergies with CCS, to ensure a diversified approach.
The EU has already laid the foundations for a comprehensive CDR strategy with the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming (CRCF), which establishes certification methodologies to ensure the transparency and environmental integrity of projects. Discussions are underway on the gradual integration of CDR into the ETS, to be addressed when the directive is revised in 2026.
These measures need to be consolidated by a European CDR strategy, defining quantified targets and support mechanisms for each method. Although the EU has tools at its disposal, such as the ICMS, the CRCF and the ETS integration project, a global vision and a long-term development strategy are still lacking. Setting precise targets for 2040 and 2050 is essential to structure this strategy, guaranteeing a gradual ramp-up and aligning public and private investment. This would avoid a late and disorganized deployment of CDR solutions, while reinforcing the coherence of the European regulatory framework.
France's position: support conditional on an ambitious industrial strategy
France supports the European target of 90 % net reduction by 2040, but makes its approval conditional on an ambitious industrial policy. January 30, 2025, Marc Ferracci, French Minister of Industry and Energy, said :
"We want to accelerate our climate objectives, but this presupposes a truly ambitious European industrial strategy. If the Clean Industry Pact isn't up to the job, France won't be able to meet its target of a 90% reduction in %."
La France insists on a strict distinction between emissions reduction and CDR, believing that the latter must not be used as a pretext for slowing down industrial decarbonization. The market also needs to be structured on a French scale. With its existing strengths (abundant biomass, geological storage, decarbonized electricity), France could become a European leader, especially if there is a rapid need for development.
Conclusion
The EU's 2040 targets could be crucial in structuring the climate transition and avoiding overshoot risks. They strike a balance between emissions reductions and CDR, while anticipating technological and economic challenges. The 2026 review of the ETS will be decisive in ensuring the integrity and effectiveness of this transition. France is seeking to reconcile its climate ambitions with its industrial competitiveness, which requires a genuine industrial ambition for CDR on its territory.
In this context, AFEN plays an important role in advancing the French position on CDR. By bringing together industrial, institutional and scientific players, it is helping to structure a coherent national vision on the development of carbon elimination solutions and their integration into the European framework. AFEN's work is also helping to clarify French expectations in terms of regulation and economic incentives, to ensure that CDR is used as a complement to emissions reductions, and not as a substitute for them.
The EU and its member states, including France, can achieve their climate objectives and strengthen their global leadership in the fight against climate change. A long-term vision, supported by targeted investment and robust regulation, is essential to ensure these goals. The 2040 targets are a key step towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, while integrating CDR now.
written by Raphaël Cario
